Saturday, August 24, 2013

Vendors Survival: Will Microsoft Survive Until 2023?

Image Source: Wikipedia

Steve Ballmer is stepping down as the CEO of Microsoft. You can read Wired article titled: Balmer's Department From Microsoft 10 years Too Late, in order to understand that the last 10 years were not a great success for Microsoft.

It is a good opportunity to go back to posts I wrote many years ago, when many people viewed Microsoft as non-vulnerable company.

For example, a post I wrote in 2008 was titled: Vendors Survival: Will Microsoft Survive until 2018?
The post included Reality Check of my 1995 presentation titled: Will Microsoft Survive until 2005?, as well as analyzing new Risk factors. 

Read other related posts appearing in the following list:

Will Microsoft Survive until 2021?

Will Microsoft Survive until 2021? - Revisited

Microsoft's Skype acquisition: Warning Signs ahead

Read also a less related post titled:

Bug 2000 (Y2K) is back in Microsoft's Azure

The next step is deciding for yourself: Will Microsoft Survive Until 2023?

My Take
The answer is not a Yes or No answer. It is a probabilistic answer.

The probability of Yes is still higher than the probability of No, but do not ignore the No as possible answer.

It is too early to tell, if the new CEO could change the non-Innovative giant company to more Agile Innovative company.

Even if he will, it will be a long and difficult Organizational Culture change process.

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