Will Microsoft Survive until 2021? - Revisited

A year ago I publishes a post titled: Will Microsoft Survive Until 2021?. According to the post, the probability in 2011, that Microsoft will survive until 2021, was lower than the probability assigned in previous post written in 2008, for its survival  for ten years, i.e. until 2018. Some problems mentioned in the 2011 post were its position in the Smart Phone market and it Windows Operating System. 


Recently, Microsoft reported Loss after a Write-Down. 
The Loss was attributed to its ill-fated acquisition of an Online Advertising company. However, Microsoft's Windows business revenues fell 13% in the fourth fiscal quarter ended June 30th. 


The Bottom Line: Although the propability that Microsoft will survive for 10 years is still high, this probability in 2012 is lower than it was in 2011.