Thursday, June 13, 2013

Will Apple Survive until 2021? - Revisted

Two years ago I published a post titled: Will Apple Survive until 2021?
Apple is not unique. I published other Vendors Long Term Survival posts e.g. Google, Microsoft, HP, Software AG, SUN, EMC.

My conclusion was: "My answer is that the probability that it will not survive is higher than the probability that the other vendors (not including Software AG and obviously not including SUN) I discussed will not survive". 

My habit is to Revisit, when a significant event occurs.
Waze acquisition by Google is a significant event, which should need Anti-Trust clearance. Perhaps this event, is more significant for Apple than for Google. Apple's costly and unsuccessful Maps application is lagging behind Google Maps

Many Web pages pointed out on two losers, who tried to acquire Waze and failed:Apple and Facebook.
Perhaps, there is more than one loser, but The Loser is not Facebook. Your guess is correct: it is Apple.

Maps Business Value Proposition
Smart Phones and Tablets based technology may enable fulfillment of a an ancient dream of Location Based services and advertisement. Appropriate Maps application is a necessary condition. 

Waze uniqueness is its Social Mapping. Social Mapping could be a key for success in providing services beyond roads and traffic services.         

Revisit Conclusions
No need to change my 2011 conclusions: "My answer is that the probability that it will not survive is higher than the probability that the other vendors (not including Software AG and obviously not including SUN) I discussed will not survive".  

2 comments:

Adrian said...

Your comment is just a guess as any other . The WAZE deal impact on Apple in the next 5-8 years is very much unclear as the future of the smartphone.
As an entertainment delivery tool, it is very uncomfortable, too small for games, to big ( tablet ) as a phone . What may "kill" Apple is the appearance of a new device for entertainment . They need a new Ipod . Maps is not the issue , neither location.

Avi Rosenthal said...

Adrian, thanks for your comment.

I did not argue that mapping application issues would or could kill Apple. It is just an indicator. Read about other indicators in previous posts: Apple: You can't beat them allhttp://avirosenthal.blogspot.co.il/2012/06/apple-you-cant-beat-them-all.html

Vendors Survival: Apple no longer a shining star? http://avirosenthal.blogspot.co.il/2013/01/vendors-survival-apple-no-longer.html

A Quarter is not a Long term indicator http://avirosenthal.blogspot.co.il/2012/02/quarter-is-not-long-term-indicator.html

Did you find Apple? http://avirosenthal.blogspot.co.il/2012/01/did-you-find-apple.html

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