During the past 3 years a lot was changed, so the probability that it will not survive is higher than it was three years ago, although still it is a low probability.
The following bullets highlight some of the issues facing Microsoft:
- Microsoft is not a leader in the growing Cloud Computing market.
- The Skype acquisition is at least questionable. For more details read Microsoft's Skype acquisition: Warning Signs ahead as well as the comments to this post.
- Will Windows 8's new Smart Phone like interface stop Microsft's Desktop Operating Systems dominance? According to John Dvorak's post titled: Will Windows 8 Kill Microsoft? the answer to this question is positive.